Energy Resource Analysis

energy technical potential

  • the energy technical potential of a technology is its achievable energy generation given system performance, topographic, environmental, and land-use constraints

assessing technical potential establishees an upper-boundary estimate of development potential

  • there are multiple types of potential
    • resource
      • technical
        • economic
          • market

NRL's energy technical potential 2012 report

the technical potential of specific renewable electricity generation technologies

  • there are specific estimates of energy generation potential
    • based only on…
      • renewable resource availability and quality
      • technical system performance
      • topographic limitations
      • environmental
      • land-use constraints

methodology

spatial analysis calculating renewable energy technical potential

  • reporting…
    • land area sqkm
    • installed capacity
    • electricity generation
    for…
    • utility-scale photovoltaic
    • solar power
    • offshore/onshore wind power
    • biopower
    • geothermal systems each system-specific power density, capacity factor, and land-use constraints
      • were identified using published research, subject matter experts, and analysis

heavily relying on System Advisor Model (SAM) AND Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) multi-regional, multi-time period, GIS, and linear programming model

utility scale photovoltaic (urban)

\(State MWh = State \sum [urban openspace(km^2) \cdot power density (48\frac{MW}{km^2})\cdot state capacity factor (%) \cdot 8760 (hours per year)]\)

enhance geothermal systems

We derive technical potential estimates for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) from temperature at depth data obtained from the Southern Methodist University’s (SMU) Geothermal Laboratory.

  • the data ranged from 3k to 10km in depth
    • viable regions temperatures greater than 150 celcius
  • we apply known potential energy capacity \(MW_e/km^3\)
    • to each temperature-depth interval
      • to estimate total potential at each depth interval
        • based on the total volume of each unique temperature-depth interval
  • Electric generation potential calculations summarize the technical potential \(MW\)
    • at all depth intervals
  • electric generation potential \(GWh\)
    • at all depth intervals with a 90% capacity factor
      • and annual electic generation potential \(GWh\) only at optimum depth
        • we determine optimum depth by a quantative analysis
          • of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

an optimum depth is found because drilling costs increase with depth while temperature, and therefore power plant efficiency, generally increase with depth so that power plant costs decrease with depth

  • because drilling costs are increasing while power plant costs are decreasing
    • on a per \(MW\) basis, at some point there is a minimum

natural gas fire generation

  • gas delivery and gas fire generation